Credit Suisse has published some excellent research today highlighting the short term upside risk to oil prices and their view of disruptive technologies.
Very careful phrasing here, we simply want to put a number on upside crude oil price risk. At the margin, oil fundamentals data began to improve in February. To be absolutely positively crystal clear, we are not forecasting that the low of this cycle is in, and our base-case forecast remains unchanged. We are simply drawing attention to the fact that there is upside risk to oil prices
Current macro pressures are not the only concerns that investors need to worry about, in our view. A number of structural disruptive forces are at work that look set to impact growth and profitability across many industries over the next 5-10 years. With input from ~200 of our analysts, we review the potential impact of these forces for over 1,500 companies in our global coverage universe. We highlight 'The Undisruptable 60', Outperform-rated companies that look least affected by disruption and 'The Disrupted 30': Neutral- or Underperform-rated stocks that are vulnerable to disruption.
** I have prepared this commentary to give you my thoughts on various investment alternatives and considerations which may be relevant to your portfolio. This commentary reflects my opinions alone, and may not reflect the views of National Bank Financial Group. In expressing these opinions, I bring my best judgment and professional experience from the perspective of someone who surveys a broad range of investments. Therefore, this report should be viewed as a reflection of my informed opinions rather than analyses produced by the Research Department of National Bank Financial **