Please find attached the forecasts currently being used by our Economics and Strategy Team. The document includes their “base case” scenarios for investment markets given different economic scenarios and what they view the odds of each to...
Financial markets have trembled in recent days but it’s important to keep things in perspective. Aftershocks are the norm after a market earthquake. Before the February episode there had been only 10 instances since 1988 when volatility (the VIX...
Financial markets are reacting negatively to a potential trade war between the U.S. and China. War, however, may be too strong a word at this juncture. We say this because of the uncanny strategy used by the combatants:
1) Trump just announced...
After months of uncanny calm and stability, volatility came back forcefully in February. In our view, this pullback had more to do with a mean reversion to a more sustainable trend. In the next few weeks, we will continue to closely monitor...
The February announcement by Congress that it would increase government spending this year and next will prompt a temporary growth spurt in the U.S. but have a more permanent impact on America’s budget deficit which is slated to surge past 5% of GDP...
