The ending of Q1 2021 implies that we have just wrapped up the first year of a bull market that began on March 24, 2020. After such a stellar performance since then the 75% rise in the S&P 500 represents the best first year of a bull market in over 6 decades one can reasonably question what Year 2 has in store.
What can history teach us? Since 1957, every second year of bull markets has ended with positive returns for an average gain of 13%. However, a correction of at least 5% and on average 10% has also occurred over these periods. In either case, we would be surprised if the next 12 months turned out to be an exception to the rule. So, what are the key elements that will determine how bumpy the road ahead will be this time?
** I have prepared this commentary to give you my thoughts on various investment alternatives and considerations which may be relevant to your portfolio. This commentary reflects my opinions alone, and may not reflect the views of National Bank Financial Group. In expressing these opinions, I bring my best judgment and professional experience from the perspective of someone who surveys a broad range of investments. Therefore, this report should be viewed as a reflection of my informed opinions rather than analyses produced by the Research Department of National Bank Financial **