"As we enter the month of August, the U.S. Business Cycle reaches another milestone. It's now been 128 months since the last recession, matching the longest cycle on record as measured from peak to peak.." Morning Comment, Economics...
So what’s to make of this context of rising geopolitical uncertainty, tighter monetary conditions, and slower global economic momentum albeit with little recession risk on the horizon? We believe this simply reflects the fact that it’s getting late...
A great article about our current housing market.
"In May the Teranet–National Bank National Composite House Price IndexTM was up 1.0% from the previous month. This confirms the index stabilization following the downward trend...
In our first Asset Allocation Strategy report of 2018, we stated that: “In the coming year, we believe risk assets should continue to outperform, as the economic and financial backdrop remains healthy. But, as we are getting closer to the latter...
Highlights
If you hope volatility will revert back to pre-February levels, think again, as politics continue to take the lion’s share of attention in most investors’ minds.
We agree that traffic lights are slowly starting to transition...
Please find attached the forecasts currently being used by our Economics and Strategy Team. The document includes their “base case” scenarios for investment markets given different economic scenarios and what they view the odds of each to...
Financial markets have trembled in recent days but it’s important to keep things in perspective. Aftershocks are the norm after a market earthquake. Before the February episode there had been only 10 instances since 1988 when volatility (the VIX...
Financial markets are reacting negatively to a potential trade war between the U.S. and China. War, however, may be too strong a word at this juncture. We say this because of the uncanny strategy used by the combatants:
1) Trump just announced...
After months of uncanny calm and stability, volatility came back forcefully in February. In our view, this pullback had more to do with a mean reversion to a more sustainable trend. In the next few weeks, we will continue to closely monitor...
