Why do we have central banks? We argue that, in its most basic form, the main purpose of having an independent institution in charge of monetary policy is to smooth out the inevitable ups and downs of business cycles so that a society and its people...
It’s still early in Q3 and the geopolitical backdrop remains highly confusing. Yet, there are signs that some of the gloom reported in global manufacturing activity in June is abating. The Philly Fed Manufacturing Business Outlook Survey saw the...
As pointed out by our colleague Mattieu Arseneau in yesterday's Hot Chart, the BoC cannot deny that Canada is currently operating at full employment when considering their in-house measure of labour market tightness (LMI). Note that we had to...
The tide turned in favour of markets in June, with the Federal Reserve formally opening the door to potential monetary easing, the U.S. Administration lifting the tariff threat on Mexico, and Sino-American trade tensions seemingly plateauing. As a...
Every year, we present our long-term forecasts for major asset class returns, volatility, and correlations. They form the bases of our Capital Market Line (CML), an important input into National Bank Investment’s Strategic Asset llocation...
The June employment report showed stronger-than-expected payrolls (+224k), a surge in full-time positions (+453K), and a rising share of voluntary job leavers in total employment (close to 15% - chart). This evidence suggests that the U.S. economy...
Headline CPI rose significantly in May with widespread increases among categories. This was the first time since March 2016 that all major categories were up in the month. With price pressures coming from several sources, it is not surprising to see...
"On a year-to-date basis, employment in Canada is up a whopping 250K, the best such permformance since 2002 with 77% of jobs being full-time and 76% coming from the private sector" Full Article
The main culprit is the escalation of the trade dispute which has had the world's two leading economies opposed for over a year now. Indeed, just as markets expected Chinese and U.S. officials to announce some form of agreement, rather it was a new...
"As a country, Canada is paying foreign bond investors record amounts of interest (at least in current dollars). That’s the direct financial compensation that comes from having steered such a significant share of outstanding debt away from domestic...
