In our first Asset Allocation Strategy report of 2018, we stated that: “In the coming year, we believe risk assets should continue to outperform, as the economic and financial backdrop remains healthy. But, as we are getting closer to the latter...
Highlights
If you hope volatility will revert back to pre-February levels, think again, as politics continue to take the lion’s share of attention in most investors’ minds.
We agree that traffic lights are slowly starting to transition...
Please find attached the forecasts currently being used by our Economics and Strategy Team. The document includes their “base case” scenarios for investment markets given different economic scenarios and what they view the odds of each to...
Financial markets have trembled in recent days but it’s important to keep things in perspective. Aftershocks are the norm after a market earthquake. Before the February episode there had been only 10 instances since 1988 when volatility (the VIX...
Financial markets are reacting negatively to a potential trade war between the U.S. and China. War, however, may be too strong a word at this juncture. We say this because of the uncanny strategy used by the combatants:
1) Trump just announced...
After months of uncanny calm and stability, volatility came back forcefully in February. In our view, this pullback had more to do with a mean reversion to a more sustainable trend. In the next few weeks, we will continue to closely monitor...
The February announcement by Congress that it would increase government spending this year and next will prompt a temporary growth spurt in the U.S. but have a more permanent impact on America’s budget deficit which is slated to surge past 5% of GDP...
You will find attached a short summary of the 2018 budget produced by our team of experts.
This summary highlights the main changes and impacts for:
individuals
businesses
other measures of interest
Full Report
Job creation has surged on a seasonally-adjusted basis in both November and December and we expect the same thing to happen in January: we are calling for an increase of 50,000. This aggressive forecast (consensus is at +10K) is based on our view...
January’s larger-than-expected increase of U.S. hourly earnings stirred up concerns about the return of inflation. As the thinking goes, firms will pass on to consumers the higher costs brought by rising wages. But if history is any guide, firms...
